Is coding using AI a turning point? Is it still growing? ～Summary of AI Coding trends in October 2025 based on data～
October trends of AI Coding Agent
We have been operating a site called AI Coding.Info since July 2025.
This is a site that observes usage trends related to AI Coding Agents such as Claude Code, Gemini, or Codex from a fixed point from information in Github repositories. To determine the use of AI Coding Agent, we conduct daily surveys under the following conditions.
- Daily inspection of 9,000 public repositories on Github
- TOP 300 Github stars by programming language
- Researched from 30 types of programming languages
- Targets 16 types of AI Coding Agents
- Only when the rule files used by various AI Coding Agents are in the Github repository, it is determined that AI Coding Agent is being used.
Past trends
https://qiita.com/kotauchisunsun/items/5e5244fdabf577d7c879
https://qiita.com/kotauchisunsun/items/a1e06dd590f945ae09ef
https://qiita.com/kotauchisunsun/items/092784402a36d5705853
AI Coding Agent usage rate is 4.3%
**The AI Coding Agent repository utilization rate at the end of October was 4.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from 3.6% last time. ** Changes in this usage rate will be discussed later.
https://ai-coding.info/ja/agents
Share of AI Coding Agent by product
The share by product is as follows.
| Ranking | Product name | Share rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1st place | Claude Code | 29.8% |
| 2nd place | Copilot Agent | 27.4 % |
| 3rd place | Codex CLI | 20.1 % |
| 4th place | Cursor | 12.4 % |
| 5th place | Gemini CLI | 6.1% |
There are no major changes in the overall share trend. ClaudeCode's share remains the top, but the overall percentage is down 2%. Copilot is also down 0.7%. Cursor is also down 2.4%. On the other hand, Codex is making great progress with an increase of 4%. It can be seen that Codex has also been making its mark in the industry.
https://ai-coding.info/ja/agents
AI Coding Agent usage status by programming language
**The programming language in which AI Coding Agent is used the most is "TypeScript," the second is "Python," and the third is "Rust." ** This does not change the fact that TypeScript has the largest number of repositories used, as long as we look at the data for several months. The 2nd and 3rd place goes to Python or Rust, which is gradually changing. This number is also quite unusual. Github user information [Octoverse2025] (https://innovationgraph.github.com/global-metrics/programming-languages) was released this year as well, so let's take a look at the numbers using that as a reference.
| Programming languages | Number of users | Number of repositories using AI | AI usage rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| TypeScript | 3,092,032 | 126 | 4.07e-3 |
| Python | 5,495,951 | 55 | 1.00e-3 |
| Rust | 381,360 | 53 | 1.39e-2 |
First, compared to TypeScript and Python, Rust has a different order of user numbers. There is a difference of about 10 times. However, Rust has as many repositories using AI as Python. When you think about it this way, people who use Rust tend to use AI. I understand that.
Monthly trends in the number of repositories used by AI Coding Agent
The number of repositories as of October 1, 2025 is 446, and the number of repositories as of November 1, 2025 is 511. This is an increase of 105 cases from last month.
We have picked up the trends in the number of repositories of the top 5 AI Coding Agents.
| Product name | 10/1 Number of repositories | 11/1 Number of repositories | Increment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Code | 142 | 161 | 19 |
| Copilot Agent | 119 | 148 | 29 |
| Codex CLI | 72 | 109 | 37 |
| Cursor | 66 | 67 | 1 |
| Gemini CLI | 28 | 34 | 6 |
Looking at the numbers alone, ClaudeCode's growth is slowing, with Copilot Agent and Codex CLI in hot pursuit. That's what it looks like. Lately, I haven't heard much about ClaudeCode within my observation range, and I feel like it's become a commodity to some extent, so it's no longer even talked about.
Looking at the information on Google Trends as another source, it seems that ClaudeCode is the most popular in the market, while Codex and Copilot have similar numbers.
Are there any special circumstances in Japan? So I looked at the Japan-only data, but my impression is that it's not that different.
Future prediction of penetration rate
AI Coding.Info has been crawling usage data since July 2025. By doing so, you will be able to draw a predictive line to some extent. Therefore, we will try to predict the usage rate of AI Coding using data from July 2025 to November 1, 2025.
Due to the nature of the crawl program, the parameters may have changed, making it difficult to model, but let's calculate the "number of repositories that have been confirmed to be using AI Coding Agent"/"the number of repositories that have been crawled" as the "usage ratio." Let's predict this "usage rate" based on the "number of days that have passed since July 1, 2025." The formula was basically a logistic function.
As a result of optimization,
K = 1.2862e-01
A = 5.0299e+00
B = 7.5901e-03
決定係数 (R^2) = 0.9534
平均二乗誤差 (MSE) = 0.0000
二乗平均平方根誤差 (RMSE) = 0.0014
It became.
There are some deviations due to the timing of program switching, but there seems to be no problem with the coefficient of determination. Now let's make a long-term prediction.
As was clear from the parameters, the usage rate of AI Coding Agent was predicted to plateau at around 13% for all programming languages. As a mathematical model, when t is set to infinity, only K remains, so K = overall penetration rate. Isn't this a counterintuitive graph in some sense? But in a sense it's true. When considering programming languages as a whole, there are some programming languages that have not yet adopted AI Coding Agents. In fact, this month's usage rate is around 4.3%. From the perspective of someone who regularly uses AI Coding Agent, the results will probably be off.
Here, let's limit the discussion to TypeScript, which has a high usage rate for AI Coding Agent. Similarly, when finding the parameters,
K = 4.3041e-01
A = 1.7690e+00
B = 8.4311e-03
決定係数 (R^2) = 0.7348
平均二乗誤差 (MSE) = 0.0004
二乗平均平方根誤差 (RMSE) = 0.0193
The coefficient of determination is 0.73, which is a little suspicious.
Looking at the graph, there seems to be one point of missing data, so that seems to be the cause. However, it seems that predictions are generally possible. Let's make a long-term prediction in the same way.
TypeScript has a fairly high adoption rate, and in the future it will likely be used in around 43.0% of repositories. Since RMSE is 0.02, considering 3σ, TypeScript's future AI Coding Agent usage rate is likely to be 37-49%. **
**As for TypeScript, it appears that almost half of them are likely to use AI. However, on the other hand, it is likely to be around 13% for programming languages as a whole. **
But this is the data on AI Coding.Info. As I mentioned earlier, this is limited to public repositories with GEMINI.md and AGENTS.md. Therefore, there may be more cases where AI is used without such a rule file, and there may be more cases where private repositories are used.
thoughts
This time, we focused on the penetration rate and analyzed it. This is a kind of feeling,
“Accelerating the utilization of AI Coding Agents for programming languages themselves”
I was feeling it. However, a recent monthly analysis lacked certainty. Therefore, this time I created a script to collect data by date and analyzed it. There are two reasons here.
"Use of AI Coding Agent will reach saturation. If so, by how much?"
That's what I had in mind. When I proceeded to analyze the entire programming language, it was about 13%. That made some sense to me. However, on the other hand, TypeScript has a usage rate of over 25%. This seems contrary to reality. If TypeScript is around 25%, it would not be surprising if the usage rate for all programming languages is around 25%. and. With that in mind, let's try calculating it in TypeScript as well. That was the second analysis. As a result, for TypeScript, it will probably settle at 37-49%. This is the result. This is quite shocking, and the current utilization rate of 25% means that, assuming the upper limit is correct, we are close to the halfway point. I don't know about this, but AI-based coding has already become a commodity. I personally feel this. However, when I look at the data, I don't think so. That's what I thought. With accurate verbalization
**For TypeScript, the usage of coding by AI Coding Agent exceeded 25%. However, the growth in the usage rate itself will slow down, and the usage rate will eventually plateau at 50%. ** **If you look at programming languages as a whole, there are many fields where AI usage is not progressing, and currently only about 4.3% use AI. However, overall, the usage rate has increased to around 13%, and the trend is that it will continue to grow. However, 87% continue to not use AI. **
That's my opinion this time.